Archive for July, 2009

Why Not Swing Trading? (Part I)

Friday, July 31st, 2009

Determining your trading style is very important right from the beginning. Not knowing what type of a trader you are can make or break your trading career. Take the analogy of a cricket team. There are 11 players in each team in the match. All players are talented and super fit. Everyone can throw and catch the ball. However some are more skilled at balling. Others are more skilled at batting. If the baller is going to do the job of the batter, not many runs will be made and the match will be lost.

In general there are three type of trading styles: Position trading, swing trading and day trading. Investing in the currency markets or stock markets is also the same. It depends on your personality makeup what type of trading is best suited to you. You need to know what type of trading style is for you.

For example, you expect the USD to strengthen against GBP in the coming six months. You buy currency call options on USD and currency put options on GBP. In currency trading, position trading means you are in a trade for many months trying to capitalize on a major long term move in the currency market. Options traders can also be position traders through covered calls and other options trading strategies. Position Trading is generally the buy and hold strategy employed by most people of investing in stocks over a long haul. Usually positions traders are in a trade for a large long term move like when you carry trade AUD/JPY.

Swing trading is possibly the most dynamic of the three types of trading. A swing trader is able to switch up holding times quickly as the market demands. Swing traders take advantage of technical and fundamental analysis. Swing Trading means taking short term positions in anticipation of quick market movements over a series of days or weeks.

Day trading is not easy. It is certainly not a hobby. In Day Trading, you attempt to capitalize on intraday movements with the markets often trading on momentum and news. Day traders are also known as Kings of Stress. Sometimes when the positions warrants holding for a longer period, day trading can become swing trading!

Day trading is the riskiest of the three trading styles. Day trading is ideal for those who are able to handle erratic market movements while actually also having time to monitor the positions throughout the day. You should note that if you dont have time to watch your trades every moment, you should not think of day trading.

You Should Know That Swing Trading Is a Better Alternative to Day Trading Day trading hardly ever ends up well! Only 10% of the day traders succeed. Many people are attracted to the glamour and excitement of day trading. Most day trader usually blow up their accounts and fade away soon especially if the trader has no previous professional trading experience.

Swing trading can be on the other hand a much more effective trading style especially if you are a newer trader. By holding positions overnight and even for a few weeks, you can expose less money for larger moves. If you are a new trader, think about it for a moment.

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Articles on Forex Trading

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

Forex trading is the act of buying or selling one currency in exchange for another. Many global currencies are available for trade and profit is made by the natural currency movements. It is one of the worlds biggest trading markets and is responsible for billions of pounds and dollars exchanging hands every weekday.

Many currencies from around the world are available for trading including, but not limited to; the US Dollar, the British Pound, the Euro, the Australian Dollar, the Yen, the Swiss Franc, and the Canadian Dollar.

Now a lot of Forex trading articles are being published in the websites of various online magazines and other Forex websites discussing the Forex trading Strategies. These articles come up with a lot of Forex trading strategies.

But Frankly I am not sure whether all of them are able to do justice to their readers. But yes you do come across some good literature and packages which might be of great help to you. It is also not easy to formulate your own strategy because good trading systems come to light only after years of devoted research and active trading.

It is very difficult for a new trader to tell which articles are good and which are not to be trusted. Be wary of any that seem biased or have been written by someone selling a Forex tool or program.

Reading forex trading articles will help you to understand the market and trade more profitably. However please do make sure you figure out why the person has written the article in the first place.

A good currency dealing article will come up with simple strategies which are easy to use, and are all the more logical and usually used by veteran traders in the business.

A good collection of Forex trading articles should focus on disciplined methods of minimizing the risks helping to make the most out of favorable market moves. Just for the readers sake, one must publish good articles which can be utilized well by them.

If you can track down a Forex expert who has published some currency dealing articles then you can trust and learn from their content. Often these will focus more on the analytical side of things such as fundamental and technical analysis – two areas that can be difficult to understand without reading up on the subject.

Forex trading articles need to go with the concept of the Forex markets. So all these articles must be able to do justice to their readers!

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Introduction To Forex Pips

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

A Pip is the term for Percentage In Point or Price Interest Point. It is the smallest measurement for the smallest value (price) change of a currency. This term is one of the most important one among many in Forex currency trading, and should be properly understood by any new Forex trader.

Since transactions in Forex involve very large sums of currency and Forex spreads are usually very small, currency pairs are quoted to the fourth decimal place to be accurate. This is what is known as a Pip, or the smallest change of a currency pair. Take for example the currency pair of USD/EUR, quoted at 1.2345 and changes to 1.2346, the change in Pip would be 1. And if it changes from 1.2345 to 1.2305, the corresponding Pip change would be 40 Pips. Presently, there are 6 widely-traded currency pairs or called the majors, which are the following:

* EUR/USD, also called the ‘EURO” * GBP/USD, also called the “CABLE” * USD/CHF, also called the “SWISSIE” * USD/JPY, also called the “NINJA” * USD/CAD, also called the “LOONIE”, or “BEAVER” * AUD/USD, also called the “AUSSIE” *

The currency pair of EUR/USD is the most widely-traded of the 6 majors, averaging 100 Pips a day.

Profits and losses in Forex use the Pip as an accurate means of measurement, but the Pip for a USD/JPY pair has a different value compared to the Pip for USD/CAD, as it is set to the 2nd decimal place since it’s value is smaller comparable to a cent/hundredth of other major currencies.

If the price quote for the currency pair of USD/JPY is placed at 110.95, and changes to 111.0, then it has gained 5 Pips. In other currency pairs, such as the USD/CAD, a quote of 1.0234 moves to 1.0224, then it lost 10 Pips. A USD/JPY quote of 77.48 changed to 77.53, the Pip would be at 5 Pips increase. Trading with the AUD/USD with an exchange quote of 1.9876, the Pip equivalent is .0001.

Basically, when you hear someone say, “30 Pips”, it denotes thirty units of value in trading. Individual currencies are not similarly quoted in terms of Pips, so it’s best to review all the currencies you encounter during your trading. Dealing with large sums might seem daunting at times, but will get easier gradually as you begin to get acquainted with Forex trading as time passes.

In order not to get confused with the quotes, most currency paired with the USD are placed at 4 decimal places or .0001, while the yen is place at 2 decimal places or .01. Keeping this information on Forex Pips at all times during your trading can greatly help.

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Knowing the Market Sentiment (Part III)

Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

Economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on the overall currency market sentiment besides the interest rates. When the economy overheats, inflationary pressures increase forcing the Central Banks to increase the interest rates in order to cool the economy. US economy is the key factor in determining the global currency market sentiment. United States is the largest economy in the world. US economic news can and does affect the major currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, CHF/USD and JPY/USD.

A strong economic expansion coupled with a healthy labor market tends to boost consumer spending in the country. This helps in selling the stuff produced by the local companies and businesses.

A country with a strong economy is in a better position to attract foreign investors. But this economic performance should be consistent and not erratic. With consistent economic growth spread over a decade, foreign investors become interested. Foreign investment flowing into the country increases the demand for that currency. This increased demand for that currency causes it to appreciate against other currencies.

Some of the most important indicators of a country economic growth are: 1) Gross Domestic Product, 2) The unemployment rate and 3) The trade balance. Lets discuss these three economic indicators.

GDP: GDP measures the total good and services that are produced in a particular country in a one year. A healthy GDP growth rate figure usually adds a bullish sentiment to the currency of that country especially if it exceeds the market expectations. Always remember the markets tend to react more to surprises. The reaction can be positive or negative depending on the surprise. Actually we will be usually talking about the GDP growth rate whether the economy is expanding or contracting.

Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate data reports the state of the labor market in the country. A low unemployment rate is considered to be a positive for the countrys economy and its currency. A low unemployment rate means almost all the consumers have jobs and they are willing to spend more. The more the consumer spends, the more the companies and businesses in the country sell. This generates more output and further expands the economy.

Trade Balance: Current account balance is very important for measuring the health of a particular economy. If a country exports more than it imports, the trade balance is in surplus. If the imports are more than the exports, the country will end up with a trade deficit. Trade Balance is the net exports in short. This is another widely watched economic indicator in fundamental analysis. Current account deficit must be balanced by the capital account surplus otherwise a balance of payment problem will ensue. Trade deficits are not good.

Suppose US import more from Europe. US Dollar will have to be sold in order to buy Euros to pay for those imports. This selling pressure on US Dollar will result in the depreciation of the US Dollar relative to the Euro and other currencies. The opposite is true in case of a trade surplus. US Dollar will strengthen and appreciate relative to Euro if US exports more to Europe as compared to its imports.

Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of a countrys foreign or domestic policy affecting domestic social and political stability in another country or the region. Geopolitical risk is also very important. It can cause the currency of a country to move up or down relative to other currencies.

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Your Forex Education

Monday, July 27th, 2009

Some people associate forex education with going to a special school so that they can know more about forex tips and techniques. Little do they know that forex education does not require you to be in a forex school. There are indeed online forex schools where you can receive forex education but before you decide to enlist yourself one, it can be helpful learn some basic forex lessons by yourself and later compare what you know with what these forex schools teach.

To get you started in your forex education, it is important that you have key information on what the forex market is, as well as its nature. The forex market is where you can trade currencies. And unlike other trading markets, the forex market is virtually open 24 hours a day. It is therefore relatively convenient to participate in forex trading because you have the option to trade at practically any time of the day. If you are used to staying up late at night, you can do your trading while the rest of the town sleeps. Or if you are an early bird, you can start trading currencies just as everyone else’s day starts.

It is also helpful to know that the different kinds of forex market environment. The over the counter forex market is known to be most popular, and by far the biggest, market in the world today. It can be valuable to spend part of your forex education on the over the counter market as this can become your major trading field. One of the things you need to learn about this kind of forex market is the varying conditions of the trading environment. These conditions, along with the attractiveness of the rates and prices and reputation of the different traders, you will be able to determine the kind of people that traders would prefer having deals with.

Another important factor that you should consider in your forex education is the kind of people involved in different transactions. It helps to play close attention to other traders because you will need to develop some degree of trust when trading with them. You also need to remember that no one rushes your progress in your pursuit of learning more about the forex market. Rushing yourself can only bring in problems in the long run.

In thinking about your forex education, always bring quality and quantity to a balance. There is no point in knowing a lot about the technicalities of forex trading when you do not understand their significance in the actual trading arena. In the same manner, knowing so much about so little things will only slow you down.

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Big Gains And High Risk Stakes On The Forex

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

If you’re looking for a new way to invest and trade but are tired of how unreliable the NASDAQ and AMEX have become with the recent economic climate, you may want to give the Forex a chance. The Forex is the foreign exchange market. It’s unlike any other investment market in the world. On the Forex, currency trades hands rapidly.

The Forex is not a physical market like those in New York, Tokyo or London. You cannot actually go stand on the floor of the Forex like you can the NYSE. This is because the Forex is completely virtual. All trades and transactions with Forex occur over a network of computers that truly never sleep. Unlike other markets, the Forex, in essence, is always open for business.

There is no one city in which the Forex is based; however, the major trading centers involved in the Forex market are London, Tokyo and New York. The Forex is the only market in the world that involves exchanges between banks, lending institutions, national governments and speculators. Because of the ability for so many different institutions to trade, the Forex is heavily regulated, world wide.

Currency is not like stock. It can fluctuate sharply and for no apparent reason. While no trading market offers complete certainty, with the stock market, there is much less speculation than with the Forex market. The Forex market never closes. It is, because of its lack of a physical base, always open. The markets of the world roll over across time zones and continue to facilitate trades.

Analysts have created Forex software that speculates on when a particular currency will rise or fall. These Forex bots as they are referred to, claim to be accurate in dictating the way the market is going to trade. Typically, you can find Forex bots that are 70-90% dead on with their analysis. Because of this, trading the Forex has never been easier or more profitable. If you’re a day trader, you know how important it is to stay current with trends and these software packages will take most of the guess work out of your trades.

Forex signals indicate when there may be a change in a currency’s value and the Forex robot gets to work, quickly buying or selling your currency. Most bots focus on U. S. And U. K. Currency but there are other programs that are available for more extensive trading. Trades on the Forex occur as the selling of one currency and simultaneous buying of another. The two currencies that are used in any trade are called a cross.

There are several major currency pairings that are most typically traded. These include the Euro and the US Dollar, the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen and the Great Britain Pound and the US Dollar. These trades that occur on the spot are usually settled within two business days of the trade. This helps make the Forex market one of the most liquid markets in the world.

Trading the Forex can be a very lucrative move in your investment strategies. It’s not for the faint of heart, though. Transactions occur rapidly and never stop. Without the use of a Forex bot, newcomers are strongly discouraged from making high dollar investments.

The Forex is the fastest moving and liquid market in the world. The differences in trading foreign currencies and stocks are enormous and the Forex has no base for most of its fluctuations. If you’ve got money to spend, there’s plenty to be made on the Forex. Whenever you make any financial decision, the pros and cons should be greatly weighed with caution.

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Knowing Major Stock Indexes (Part II)

Saturday, July 25th, 2009

Modified cap weighting involves adjustments to the capitalizations of the various components of the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq-100 is a modified capitalization weighted index. The NDX contract at the CBOE is based on Nasdaq-100 as is the MNX.

Russell 2000 is the well known benchmark for small capitalization sector. Several Russell Indexes have become benchmarks for specific areas of investment management. Frank Russell Company is one of the leading global investment consultants. It is also involved in performance measurement, analysis and investment management.

Russell 3000 Index as the name implies includes 3000 issues and these 3000 companies represent 98% of the investable US equities. The index is adjusted for certain factors such as cross holdings and the number of pairs in hands.

Russell 3000 is further split into subsets like Russell 1000 Index. It covers the top 1000 about 92% of the value of the entire 3,000 stock index. The Russell 2000 Index is the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index.

From the business point of view, the Wall Street Journal is probably one of the most perfect business franchises. A franchise that is very hard to duplicate. The net worth of most of its readers is in seven figures. Dow Jones is the publisher of this journal.

DJIA became an important business barometer over the years. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) comprising 12 smokestack companies made its debut in the year 1896 and it grew to encompass 30 large industrial companies.

The DJIA is still one of the worlds best known stock measures. It consists of 30 largest and most liquid blue chip stocks in the US. The average is maintained by the editors of the Wall Street Journal.

The DJIA unlike the S&P 500, Russell 3000 Indexes or the Nasdaq-100 is a price weighted average. The highest price issues hold the most influence over the average. Recently Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel were added to the DJIA.

A 1 percent move in a $90 Microsoft (MSFT) stock would have a greater impact than a 1 percent move in a $30 Intel stock on DJIA as compared on the S&P 500. ETFs exit on many Dow Indexes like the DJIA, the Dow Jones Global Titan Index, the Dow Jones Total Market Index, and various sector indexes.

Wilshire flagship index is the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Wilshire serves over 400 organizations in over 20 countries representing over $2 trillion in assets.

Over the years, it has increased to 6500 issues representing the increase in the number of companies in the US. It represents the broadest index for the US equity markets.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) database contains nearly 25,000 securities. This database covers equities in 50 countries and one of the advantages of MCSI and its foreign indexes is consistency. MSCI calculates nearly 3,000 indexes daily and services a client base of over 1,200 worldwide.

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What Are Stock Indexes? (Part I)

Friday, July 24th, 2009

There are 100s of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and HOLDRS covering key industry benchmarks such as the various Standard & Poor (S&P) Indexes, Russell Indexes or the Dow Jones Products. There are other ETFs that cover the other less well known narrow based sectors.

For example SPY tracks the Standard & Poors 500 Composite Index and is the largest of the ETFs. You should know the major indexes that are either key benchmarks or have ETFs tied to them.

Standard & Poor: Standard & Poor (S&P) is the financial services segment of the McGraw Hill companies and has been providing independent and objective financial information, analysis and research for nearly 140 years.

It is also the provider of equity indexes. Investors around the globe use S&P Indexes for investment performance measurement. These indexes are also used as the basis for wide variety of financial instruments such as Index Funds, Futures, Options and ETFs.

S&P 500 Composite is one of the most popular indexes in the global financial markets. Hundreds of companies around the world have licenses with the Standards & Poors for their index products. The influence and name recognition of S&P 500 is unparalleled. It is also used as a key benchmark for money manager performance.

S&P 500 represents more than 75% of the capitalization of the entire US Stock Market. The S&P 500 is a capitalization weighted index that tracks the performance of 500 large capitalization issues. Each year thousands of money managers have the single minded goal of outperforming the S&P 500.

The stocks in the S&P 500 are determined by a nine member committee in accordance with the general guidelines. 30 years back most of the stocks in S&P 500 were from the Industrial Sector. Over the years, the complexion of S&P 500 has changed. By 1970s, six of the top companies were from the Oil Sector. In 2000s, technology composed about one third of the capitalization of the index.

The other Standard & Poors indexes are the S&P Midcap 400 Index. It is based on 400 chosen domestic stocks and is also capitalization based. It measures the performance of the midsize companies of the US economy.

The S&P SmallCap 600 Index consists of 600 domestic stocks. These stocks are chosen for market size and liquidity. S&P SmallCap 600 is also capitalization weighted index and is of interest to institutional and retail investors. There are also sub-indexes based on these S&P Indexes.

NASDAQ: You will often hear in the media that the Nasdaq market being up or down on a given day. NASDAQ Composite Index contains more than 4500+ companies. It represents a market capitalization of trillions of dollars in the US economy.

There is another Nasdaq Index called the Nasdaq-100 and it is composed of the top 100 nonfinancial companies in the Nasdaq Stock Market. NASDAQ-100 is a modified capitalization weighted index. The QQQ is based on the Nasdaq-100 Index.

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Placing Stop Loss Order

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

You should understand how to select stop orders to limit your potential losses and how to let profits ride. Managing risk and using systems that helps evaluate price changes is critical for a trader if he/she is to maintain a degree of profitability over time.

Managing risk should be your number one job. The descriptions of the types of stops and the pros and cons of each should help you make the right decisions for the different market conditions. Capturing as much profit as possible from winning trades should be your utmost goal.

Predetermined stop loss orders help you conquer your emotions. Stops should be part of the trading system. They should be included in your trading rules. You should also know where and when to place these stops. You should know the various types of stop loss orders.

Set a stop objective. Weigh the risk/reward ratio before entering each trade. Stop orders can be placed close to the entry level when volatility is low. However, when the volatility is high, stop orders should be placed further from the entry level.

Initially you will form an opinion based on your gut feelings that is substantiated by a trade signal. When entering a trade make sure you know where and why to put the stop order.

However, you will undoubtedly get caught in the news driven price shock events that make the markets highly unpredictable in the short run. These news releases cause price spikes that may make an adverse move against your position.

Stop orders can also be placed to enter positions. Stop orders that you place online if the market trades at a certain price, then the order is triggered and become a market order to be filled in by the next best price available. Stop orders are placed to protect against losses.

Buy stops are placed above the current market price and sell stops are placed below the current market price. Protective stops are used to offset a position and to protect against losses and against accrued profits.

You can set a daily dollar amount on the loss limit. If you want to risk only $250 per $100,000 standard lot position then your stop loss will be placed 25 pips from your entry point. Stops can be placed on a dollar amount per position.

Traders use 2-5% of the overall account size as their stop loss. Suppose your trading account size is $10,000. You can also use a certain percent of your overall account size as your stop loss. This comes out to be $200-$500.

Swing traders can use the automatic trailing stop. This makes the decision making process fully automated. Many traders tend to turn winners into losers as they get in the let it ride mindset. The trailing stop reduces the chance to let trades ride.

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ETFs Explained

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

ETFs mean Exchange Traded Funds. ETFs represent an ownership stake in a basket of underlying securities. This basket can represent a specific index like the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100, segment of market like the small cap, large growth stocks, sector like semiconductor, energy, travel or foreign currencies like Euro, Yen.

The value of the ETF is determined by the underlying securities. It can also comprise of bonds, gold, silver or other commodities. So you may be thinking this sound like investing in a mutual fund.

ETFs can be brought and sold throughout the trading day like ordinary stocks. ETFs are different from the Mutual Funds in a number of ways. The unit price of ETF changes instantaneously unlike the Mutual Funds that are priced at the end of the trading day.

There is no minimum for ETF purchases. ETFs can be traded using the market, limit and stop loss orders. ETFs can be shorted, traded with a margin account and many trade options. So ETFs offer the diversification advantages of mutual funds and the flexibility of stocks.

One of the main advantages of ETFs is that they offer diversification. Suppose you have a bullish opinion on the oil sector. You will have to analyze dozens of companies in the oil sector and spend hours to select the one that you think is the strongest.

ETFs provide you the benefit of diversification in the same way that mutual funds do to the small retail investors. Instead of investing in a few stocks you can now invest in a particular sector just like investing in a mutual fund. You could choose the Oil Sector ETF that would give you the advantage of mimicking some oil sector index.

The key advantage that ETFs hold over mutual funds is that they can be sold or bought at anytime of the day. ETF prices keep on changing in relation to the underlying assets. However, mutual funds are priced only once at the end of each trading day.

A mutual fund charges management fees and can also charge upfront, backend or other sales loads. Expense ratios for ETFs on average are not more than 0.4%. Another main advantage of ETFs over mutual funds is the fees charged by each. ETF expenses are low because they are passively managed and generally follow an established index.

Currency trading has become extremely popular among the big players like the institutional investors, big companies and hedge funds. Foreign currency trading is not just for gamblers or commodity traders. It is now available to retail investors like you and me also.

Foreign currency has become a respected asset classification. It is so hot that now you can trade Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on currencies. If you want to hedge or speculate that the U.S. dollar is strengthening or weakening against major foreign currencies and like the idea and concept of ETFs, now there is a pretty good inventory of product to choose from. As with any other product there are advantages and disadvantages of trading ETFs so you need to do your due diligence before making any investment decision.

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