by Richard U. Olson
The mathematician Fibonacci or Leonardo of Pisa in 1202 first published his Fibonacci sequence. In order to calculate the number of pairs of rabbits he would have at the end of a year based on their behavior of breeding, Fibonacci developed this famous sequence of numbers. Forex traders find this type of no-nonsense approach very profitable.
Mistakenly many individuals consider mathematical abstraction as frivolous; however it is rooted into real world mathematical applications. The Fibonacci sequence is useful for making us aware of and then explaining those hidden patterns around us daily.
How can this be applied to investing? Very astute investors understand that there are hidden patterns in the stock market–based on the mass of investors’ behavior. “Buy low and sell high” and “The best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets” are but two investment aphorisms that not only work, but also come from understanding hidden patterns of the investment markets.
These patterns cannot be seen by a day to day observation of market conditions, but reveal themselves when you step back and take a look at the big picture. Short term fluctuations in the market are nearly impossible to accurately forecast. However, the trends which occur over time most certainly are predictable. Investors of all stripes, including Forex traders have used the Fibonacci sequence to plan their investments and make large profits in the currency exchange markets.
Using the Fibonacci sequence involves a series of numbers. Each following number is the sum of the two numbers before it. It progresses like this 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and into infinity. There are numeral interrelationships within these numerals. For example, take any number; it is roughly 1.618 times the number before it. Anciently the Greeks found number 1.618 reprehensive of the golden ratio which is the supreme essence of balance. This balance is the fundamental strategy of profitable investing
Arcs and retracements are two of the most widely used applications of the Fibonacci series by investors, including Forex traders.
A Fibonacci chart is made of three curved lines which represent support levels, key resistance and ranging. A trendline is first drawn between two points (generally the high and low points over a given period of time). Three curved lines are then drawn which intersect the trendline at the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% points. Decisions about buying and selling are made at these points (i.e. – when the price of the commodity in question reaches these points).
Now, a retracement, in investing, refers to a reversal in the movement of a stock’s price–a reversal which is enough to counter the stock’s prevailing trend. Advanced successful investors pay intense attention to retracement possibilities and patterns. The Fibonacci retracement analyzes the likelihood that a financial asset’s price will see a larger than average retracement and then come to support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it then continues on in its original direction. A trendline is drawn between two extreme points; then, its vertical distance is divided by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%.
The Fibonacci retracement is widely used by sophisticated traders to find: strategic places for transactions to be placed; target prices; and stop-losses. Other technical tools including Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, and Elliott Wave theory all make use of retracement.
The reason that the Fibonacci sequence is used in investing is simple: it works! Forex traders in particular in particular seem to find it useful in making profitable trades.